Quite unexpectedly, we are witnessing a financial crisis and recession. Black Thursday crash of the markets around the world for a couple of percent and now the world’s market capitalization declined by $ 2.5 trillion and 817 billion dollars were in companies included in the S&P 500. In America, well-known mortgage insurerĀ Fannie Mae has asked the state for another 5 billion dollars. In Europe, the German Commerzbank writes off debts of U.S. $ 1,000,000,000 in Greece, and Germany has doubts that Italy could be saved by default, even if the stabilization fund to treble EU. And I almost forgot – America’s rating dropped from a higher level below AAA – AA +, which is actually quite unheard of. Surely this is a recession.
It has been proposed to stimulate domestic demand, which in turn would stimulate the economy. And despite the fact that the strategy has paid off: inflation and unemployment have been significantly reduced, it also spawned a crisis that we see today.
What’s the point? Under the vague phrase, stimulating domestic demand is an understandable concept, which can outline a bit simplistic way: the Fed prints money and gives them to banks, banks give them to people, people buy junk, which makes industry happy. Stimulation – in the face. Unfortunately stimulation required time, so the Fed had to print money to banks at all diminishing the prime rate (the percentage at which banks borrow money from the Federal Reserve System). Loans issued faster than back. In order for the entire system to work the prime rate had to drop all the past 30 years. Almost zero, he reached in 2008th year.
Actually this is the reason why all can not continue to go on as before – the further refinancing of existing debt is impossible. The American economy can not be stimulated either by the internal market, or through external. By and large, America is no more leverage than the printing press. During the three years was printed 5.3 trillion dollars, while real GDP grew by less than 1%. Fully admit that the recent decline in Black Thursday was specifically triggered to start a new program of stimulation.
Then of course you can ask – where such a fixation on the country of unlimited possibilities? The answer is simple: that U.S. demand has played the role of locomotive of world economy in recent decades. The whole globalized world one way or another tied to it. And the end of this demand will inevitably mean the end of the economic and financial system in the form in which we now know it.
Netherlands this recession and financial crisis will bypass. Downturn in the economy will not lead to a decline in the price of tulip bulbs. But what is really quite bleak picture I painted. It is unlikely that everything will collapse overnight – the decline probably would be monotonous. And of course, the fall will be uneven. Relatively strong will fall those who are above all climbed. Overheated and speculative markets will probably crash down. And someone must be able to profit from this recession.